USDA Raises Forecasts for 2020 Milk Production
WASHINGTON — USDA this month raised its 2020 milk production forecast 100 million pounds on higher expected cow numbers to 222.5 billion pounds in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report released Thursday.
Milk Production Forecast
In 2021, USDA now forecasts milk production to reach 225.3 billion pounds, up from 224.1 billion pounds forecast last month. The forecast is raised on higher expected cow numbers and stronger growth in milk per cow.
USDA’s fat basis import forecast for 2020 is raised from the previous month on higher imports of butterfat products, while the fat basis export forecast is reduced on lower expected sales of cheese.
The 2020 skim-solids basis import forecast is raised from last month on recent trade data and expectations of higher imports of a number of dairy products, while the skim-solids basis export forecast is raised primarily on higher skim milk powder and lactose exports, the report says.
In 2021, the fat basis and skim-solids import forecasts are reduced, while the export forecasts are unchanged.
Price forecasts for 2020 cheese, butter, and nonfat dry milk (NDM) are raised from the previous month on recent price strength and stronger anticipated demand.
Cheese is now forecast to average $1.660 per pound, up from $1.420 forecast last month. Butter is forecast to average $1.680 per pound, up from $1.410 last month, and NDM is forecast to average $1.000 per pound, up from $0.940 last month, the report says.
The 2020 whey price forecast is lowered to $0.360 per pound, down from $0.380 forecast last month.
For 2021, cheese, butter and NDM price forecasts are raised from the previous month while whey is lowered. Cheese is forecast to average $1.610 per pound, while butter is forecast at $1.690, NDM at $0.970, and whey at $0.345.
Class III and Class IV milk prices are raised for 2020, at $15.65 and $13.55 per hundredweight, respectively. The all milk price forecast is raised to $16.65 for 2020.
The 2021 Class III and Class IV forecasts also are raised from last month at $15.10 and $13.35 per hundredweight, respectively. The all milk price forecast is raised to $16.20 for 2021, USDA says.
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Source: Cheese Market News