USDA Report Says Global Cheese Trade Projected To Rise In 2024
As milk production is projected to remain steady among major global dairy exporters in 2024, global dairy trade projections vary by commodity, with cheese exports forecast up 3%, butter down 3% and powder exports nearly the same, according to USDA’s latest biannual “Dairy: World Markets and Trade” report released this week.
Fluid milk production in 2024 is projected to rise 1% over the 2023 forecast in the United States and Australia; remain unchanged in the European Union (EU) and New Zealand; and fall 2% in Argentina, bringing the average change among major dairy exporters to 0%, according to USDA’s latest report.
Increased Cheese Production And Exports In Global Markets
Cheese production and exports are forecast higher for almost all major global exporters in 2024. In the largest cheese exporter, the EU, cheese production is forecast up marginally in 2024 despite weaker milk production , as profitability is expected to remain higher compared to butter and milk powders, USDA says. As EU processors face a reduced milk supply, they are expected to funnel a larger share of the milk pool toward cheese production, prioritizing it over other dairy products.
Cheese Exports And Market Trends In The European Union
EU cheese exports are expected to rise 1% in 2024 over 2023. Cheese exports from the United States, United Kingdom (UK) and Belarus also are projected to rise single digits, while Australian cheese exports are projected to increase 23% over 2023.
Significant Growth In Australian Cheese Exports Projected For 2024
“Cheese exports (from Australia) are forecast to rebound significantly in 2024 after a weak 2023, supported by improving import demand and a regain in competitiveness in Japan, China, South Korea and the Philippines,” the report notes.
New Zealand’s Declining Market Share In Global Cheese Exports
Meanwhile New Zealand is the only major cheese exporter projected to decline in 2024, down 5% from 2023, as increased competitiveness from Australia and the EU is expected to pressure market share in markets like China and Japan, according to USDA.
Varied Trends In Butter Exports Among Major Global Exporters
Butter exports in 2024 are forecast to decline in the two largest markets: EU (down 4%) and New Zealand (down 8%), moving the major exporter total down 3%. However, 2024 butter exports are forecast to increase for the United States (11%), UK (18%) and Belarus (3%).
USDA notes EU butter production is forecast to decline by 20,000 metric tons from 2023 as processors prioritize the smaller milk pool toward cheese production. This lower production and stronger export competition, particularly from New Zealand, drive the lower EU butter export forecast.
Butter Production And Export Shifts In The EU And New Zealand
Meanwhile in New Zealand, butter production is expected to continue growing again in 2024, up 3%, but processing capacity remains slow to respond to strengthening butter prices. Therefore, much of the manufacturing increase is expected in the second half of the year, and exports are forecast to decline relative to a strong export year in 2023 as exportable supplies remain relatively tight, USDA notes.
Stable Global Skim Milk Powder Exports With A Focus On U.S. Growth
Global exports of skim milk powder (SMP) are projected to remain at 0% growth in 2024. Australian SMP exports are projected to hold steady in 2024, while New Zealand and EU SMP exports are projected to decline. SMP exports from the United States are projected to rise 3%, as U.S. SMP output is forecast to grow 11% in 2024.
Forecasted Trends In Global Whole Milk Powder Exports For 2024
“The gap between U.S. and EU prices has narrowed to parity over the course of 2023 and is expected to skew in favor of U.S. exports in 2024,” USDA notes about SMP. “In 2024, exchange rates are also forecast to shift in favor of U.S. exports as the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates, improving purchasing power for U.S. dairy commodities, especially in a period of global economic uncertainty.”
Global exports of whole milk powder are forecast to rise 1% in 2024, with a 57% increase in exports from Argentina offsetting declines in exports from Australia, the EU and New Zealand.
To view the full report, visit https://fas.usda.gov/report-release-announcement/dairy-world-markets-and-trade-3.
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Source: Cheese Market News
