USDA Raises Dairy Export And Import Forecasts In Outlook
U.S. dairy product exports for fiscal year (FY) 2024 are projected at $8.0 billion in USDA’s latest Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade published Wednesday, May 29th. This is up $300 million from February’s forecast on higher volumes of cheese to Southeast Asia, USDA notes.
The latest outlook also raises its FY 2024 forecast for U.S. dairy product imports to $5.6 billion, up $400 million due to higher unit values and volumes of cheese from the European Union. Cheese imports are raised to $2.0 billion, up $200 million from February’s forecast for FY 2024.
Projected Growth In U.S. Dairy Product Exports
Total U.S. agricultural exports in FY 2024 are projected at $170.5 billion, unchanged from the February forecast. Higher exports of livestock and dairy, as well as increased ethanol sales, largely offset reductions in grains and feeds, oilseeds and horticultural products, USDA notes.
Increase In U.S. Dairy Product Imports
Meanwhile, U.S. agricultural imports in FY 2024 are forecast at $202.5 billion, up $1.5 billion from the February projection, predominantly driven by higher horticultural products as well as livestock and dairy imports, according to the outlook. This widens the projected trade deficit to $32.0 billion, up from a deficit of $30.5 million in February’s forecast.
Global Economic Growth And Trade Challenges
In its outlook, USDA says global economic growth continues to increase, but at a slow rate, in part due to a stagnation of global trade growth in 2023 and early 2024. Despite the slow progress, this steady growth marks a continued sign of resilience following the economic turmoil from 2020 through 2022.
Factors Influencing Economic Growth
Several potential barriers to sustained economic growth persist, USDA adds. These include the war in Ukraine, intensifying conflicts in the Middle East, China’s economic uncertainty and shifting weather patterns. Despite these challenges, positive economic growth across most regions is expected to continue through the rest of 2024, according to USDA’s economic outlook.
Forecast For Global GDP And Inflation
Global gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to rise by 3.2% in calendar year 2024, a slight increase from the previous forecast of 3.1%. Global economic growth is expected to continue an upward trend despite lingering inflation concerns. USDA adds that the International Monetary Fund forecasts that global headline inflation will fall to 5.9% by the end of this calendar year, down from 6.8% last year.
To view the full outlook, visit www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/outlooks/109253/aes-128.pdf.
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Source: Cheese Market News
