USDA Projects Higher Global Dairy Trade For Most Products
Cow’s milk production, as well as exports of cheese, butter and whole milk powder are expected to grow in 2025 compared to this year among major global exporters, according to the latest biannual Dairy: World Markets and Trade report released in mid December by USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service.
Whey Protein Concentrate Exports Dominate Asian Markets
The report also notes that the growing gap in global demand for different types of whey ingredients continued in 2024, as exports of whey protein concentrate containing 80% protein content (WPC80+) have outpaced lower-protein dried whey categories, especially to Asian markets. The United States remains the largest global supplier of WPC80+, accounting for approximately 47% of the global export market volume through the first 10 months of 2024, up 44% from 2023. USDA also reports U.S. processors are expected to increase WPC80+ output on new expected production capacity coming online, and no other global supplier is poised to experience comparable production growth.
Growth In Global Dairy Exports: Milk Production Trends
Most major dairy exporters are projected to increase fluid cow’s milk production in 2025 compared to 2024, including Argentina, Australia, New Zealand and the United States. The European Union (EU) is the only top exporter projected to decrease; production is expected to decline 0.2% in 2025 as shrinking dairy cow inventories and challenging economic conditions and regulations persist, USDA says.
Cheese Production And Export Leaders
Meanwhile, the EU is expected to maintain its global leadership in cheese production in 2025, with output projected to grow slightly to 10.8 million metric tons, the report says. EU cheese exports also remain strong, particularly to the United States, Japan and the Middle East, while the ongoing EU-China trade dispute regarding EU agricultural subsidies is anticipated to have some negative impact on exports. Shipments from most major cheese exporters (Australia, EU, New Zealand and the United States) are forecast to grow in 2025, while United Kingdom (UK) cheese exports are projected to remain the same as in 2024.
Butter And Whole Milk Powder Export Projections
The top two butter exporters, New Zealand and the EU, are projected to increase exports 2.2% and 1.8%, respectively, in 2025, USDA reports, while butter exports from the UK and United States are expected to remain flat. USDA reports that consumption of butter in China is anticipated to rise 6% in 2025 as it gains broader use in applications like bakery products, surpassing cheese in growth momentum. This trend is driven by the replacement of vegetable oils with butter in premium products despite higher costs, the report notes.
Whole milk powder (WMP) combined exports among Argentina, Australia, the EU and New Zealand are projected to rise 2.2% in 2025, led by a 2.8% increase in exports by top exporter New Zealand, and a 16% increase by Argentina. However, whole milk powder exports from the EU and Australia are projected to decline 4.5% and 20.0%, respectively, USDA reports.
Challenges For Skim Milk Powder In Global Dairy Exports
Skim milk powder (SMP) exports among top exporters United States, EU, New Zealand and Australia are projected to decline overall, with all top exporters expected to see declines except for the EU, which will remain flat, according to USDA’s report.
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Source: Cheese Market News
