USDA Adjusts 2024 Milk Production and Dairy Price Forecasts
In its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released February 8th, USDA notes the 2024 milk production forecast is lowered to 228.2 billion pounds, down 100 million pounds from the forecast in January 2024, due to lower expected output per cow, which is partly offset by higher cow inventories.
Key Factors Influencing The 2024 Milk Production Forecast
On a fat basis, domestic use is raised as a more rapid pace of disappearance during the fourth quarter of 2023 carries over into 2024. Fat basis exports for 2024 are raised by 100 million pounds to 11.7 billion pounds based on higher expected butter and cheese exports as the United States is expected to be competitive on the international market for those products, USDA says. Fat basis imports are lowered by 100 million pounds to 7.4 billion pounds in 2024.
Skim-solids basis domestic use also is raised based on higher-than-expected disappearance in the fourth quarter of 2023. Skim-solids basis exports are lowered to 51.9 billion pounds in 2024 to reflect the strength of domestic prices as domestic demand is stronger, USDA notes.
2024 Dairy Price Trend Forecast
Cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey prices for 2024 all are raised based on recent price strength, tighter supplies of milk and stronger domestic use, USDA says. In 2024, cheese now is forecast to average $1.690 per pound; butter $2.770 per pound; NDM $1.235 per pound; and dry whey $0.480 per pound.
Class III and Class IV milk prices in 2024 also are raised based on higher product prices, USDA says. Class III is forecast to average $17.10 per hundredweight, while Class IV is forecast to average $20.20 The all milk price estimate for 2023 is reduced to $20.48 per hundredweight based on reported data through December, while the all milk price forecast for 2024 is raised to $20.95 per hundredweight.
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Source: Cheese Market News
