USDA 2022 Milk Production, Cheese And Butter Price Forecasts
USDA’s 2022 milk production forecast is raised 400 million pounds from the previous month to 226.7 billion pounds, with higher milk cow inventories more than offsetting slower growth in milk per cow, according to the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released this week.
Fat-basis exports for 2022 are raised from the previous month mainly on stronger butter and cheese shipments. The 2022 skim-solids basis export forecast is lowered on weaker skim milk powder and whey exports, USDA says. Fat basis and skim-solids basis import forecasts are raised from last month on higher expected imports of a number of dairy-containing products.
Cheese and butter price forecasts for 2022 are raised from the previous month on strong demand. Cheese now is forecast to average $2.175 per pound, up from $2.150 forecast last month, while butter now is forecast to average $2.650, up from $2.640.
Nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey price forecasts for 2022 are lowered to $1.715 and $0.655 per pound, respectively. Both Class III and Class IV forecasts are lowered to $22.75 and $23.80 per hundredweight, respectively, while the 2022 all milk price is forecast at $25.75, down a nickel from last month.
USDA also included projections for 2023 in this month’s report. Milk production for 2023 is forecast at 229.5 billion pounds, driven by gains in milk per cow, with the milk cow herd expected to average close to 2022 levels. Exports on a fat basis are forecast lower, largely on lower expected butter sales. On a skim-solids basis, exports are forecast higher with gains expected in cheese, skim milk powder and whey sales. Imports are projected to grow on a skim-solids basis, with higher imports of a number of dairy products, but are unchanged on a fat basis.
Price forecasts for 2023 are lowered from 2022 for cheese, butter NDM and whey. The Class III price for 2023 is forecast lower on weaker cheese and whey prices. The Class IV price is forecast lower as well, while the 2023 all milk price is forecast at $23.55 per hundredweight, down from the 2022 forecast.
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