Dairy Market Dynamics: USDA’s Milk Supply & Price Forecast Analysis
Milk supply and use estimates for 2023 are adjusted to reflect revisions in production and cold storage data, says USDA in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released today. For 2024, the milk production forecast is lowered to 227.3 billion pounds, down 900 million pounds from last month, due to smaller dairy cow inventory and slower growth in output per cow.
Domestic Use And Trade Dynamics
On a fat basis, the domestic use forecast is unchanged from last month. Fat-basis imports are raised on higher imports of a number of products. Fat-basis exports are lowered primarily on lower expected cheese and butter shipments. On a skim-solids basis, the domestic use forecast is raised. Import forecasts are raised, while exports, primarily of cheese, nonfat dry milk (NDM)/skim milk powder and whey, are lowered, USDA says.
Dairy Price Forecast
For 2024, the butter price forecast is raised to $2.800 per pound, up from $2.770 last month, on recent data and strong demand. The cheese price also is raised to $1.710 per pound, up from $1.690 last month, on recent price strength.
NDM and whey price forecasts both are lowered, to $1.210 and $0.450, respectively, based on recent prices.
Class III 2024 prices are projected higher at $17.15 per hundredweight, up from $17.10 last month, based on higher cheese prices, while Class IV prices are lowered from $20.20 per hundredweight last month to $20.10 this month as the lower NDM price more than offsets the higher butter price.
The 2024 all milk price is projected higher at $21.25 per hundredweight, up from $20.95 last month.
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Source: Cheese Market News