2024 Cheese Export Forecast Up 5% Among Top Exporters
The top six major global cheese exporters (Australia, Belarus, European Union [EU], New Zealand, United Kingdom [UK] and the United States) are forecast to export a total 2.94 million metric tons of cheese in 2024, up 5% from the 2023 total, according to the latest “Dairy: World Markets and Trade” report from USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service.
Record Year Ahead For U.S. Cheese Exports In 2024
U.S. cheese exports in 2024 are forecast at 507,000 metric tons, up 17% from 2023’s 433 metric tons. The outlook for U.S. cheese exports in 2024 is promising, the report notes, with exports through May already 28% higher than the same period in 2023, bolstered by global economic recovery and a significant price advantage against competitors in the first quarter of the year. The addition of new production capacity also has helped boost export volumes.
Although relatively uncompetitive U.S. prices might present challenges in the second half of the year, the overall outlook suggests that 2024 could be a record-breaking year for U.S. cheese exports, the report adds. Shipments are expected to slow somewhat in the second half of the year as a recent rally in cheese prices erodes U.S. price competitiveness, USDA explains. U.S. cheese prices hit $2 per pound in June and are forecast at $1.97 per pound in the third quarter and $1.93 per pound in the fourth quarter. Oceania cheese prices were $1.97 in July but are expected to moderate during the second half of the year.
Australia’s Cheese Export Boom: 2024 Cheese Export Forecast
Australia’s cheese production in 2024 is projected at 435,000 metric tons, supported by higher milk supplies and relatively strong profitability, the report says. Australian cheese exports in 2024 are forecast at 165,000 metric tons, up 28% from 2023’s 129,000 metric tons. Major export destinations for Australian cheese include Japan, China and various Southeast Asian countries, USDA says.
New Zealand’s Cheese Export Forecast Declines Amid Production Challenges
In 2024, New Zealand’s cheese production is projected at 375,000 metric tons. Recent investments in processing facilities have enabled New Zealand to diversify its cheese portfolio, catering to both local and international markets, according to the report. This includes expansion into soft cheese varieties like Brie, Blue cheese and Gouda. The majority of New Zealand’s cheese goes to export markets, and this year the country is anticipated to export approximately 350,000 metric tons of cheese, down 6% from last year due to lower forecast production. Key destinations for these exports include China, Japan and Australia.
New Zealand is the only major market where the 2024 cheese export forecast is down. EU, the largest global cheese exporter, is forecast to export 1.4 million metric tons of cheese in 2024, up 2% from 2023. The report notes early 2024 saw a significant boost in EU cheese exports, particularly to the UK and the United States, driven by increased demand for hard cheeses such as Grana Padano and Parmigiano Reggiano.
EU Cheese Consumption And Production: 2024 Cheese Export Forecast
In 2024, EU cheese production is set to rise by nearly 1%, reaching approximately 10.5 million metric tons, the report adds. This increase is driven by robust domestic consumption and consistent export demand. The primary producers — Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands and Poland — contribute nearly three quarters of the EU’s total cheese output. Cheese production remains a key priority for the European dairy sector due to its dependable returns and high market demand.
Domestic consumption of cheese within the EU is expected to accelerate as well this year supported by economic recovery and the resurgence of the hospitality and tourism sectors. Germany, France, Italy, Poland and Spain are the leading cheese-consuming countries. Following a dip in 2022 due to reduced consumer purchasing power, cheese consumption stabilized in 2023 and is anticipated to follow an upward trajectory in 2024, the report says. Factors such as rising incomes and the return to pre-COVID levels of tourism and dining out are key contributors to this growth.
SMP Exports And Cheese Production: A Shift In Global Dairy Trends
Skim milk powder (SMP) global exports among the five major exporters (Australia, Belarus, EU, New Zealand and the United States) is forecast to total 2.20 million metric tons in 2024, down 4% from 2023, USDA reports. Exports from Australia are forecast to rise 20% and Belarus 2%, while other major exporters have projected declines.
Opportunities And Challenges In The 2024 Cheese Export Forecast
In 2024, Australia’s SMP production is anticipated to increase 17% from the previous year, largely driven by an overall boost in milk production, the report says, and projected SMP exports also reflect this increased production. The primary markets for Australian SMP include China and Indonesia, although there has been a notable shift with reduced exports to China being offset by greater demand from other countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and Saudi Arabia. Despite these changes, China remains a significant market, though its higher domestic production has lessened its dependence on imports.
Navigating Market Dynamics: Strategies for Cheese Exporters
SMP production in the EU is expected to decline slightly in 2024 as dairy processors are focusing more on cheese production than SMP and butter due to higher returns. This shift is driven by lower farmgate milk prices and elevated production costs, which make SMP production less profitable. SMP exports from the EU also are expected to decrease due to reduced production and raised global competition. Key markets for EU SMP, such as the Middle East, North Africa and Southeast Asia, are experiencing boosted local production and shifting imports to other major exporters like New Zealand and Australia.
U.S. SMP exports have been challenged to start 2024, down 11% through May, USDA reports. Exports are forecast to fall more than 8% to 741,000 metric tons, as performance has been hindered by weak demand from key markets in Southeast Asia compounded by increased competition.
To read the full report, visit https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/5t34sj56t?locale=en.
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Source: Cheese Market News
